| 99 101 |                         | White money game Blue |
Problem #3 Play Votes Score11/8, 7/1* 3 10011/5, 9/6 3 9011/5, 7/4 2 8011/2 1 708/2, 5/2 1 70 7/1*, 5/2 0 40
Steve Clark: 11/2.
I am not at all willing to break my prime here. It remains the potentialgame winner. Of the choices which preserve the prime, 11-5, 7-4 looksterribly cramped. Actually 11-2 looks like the obvious choice. I am nottoo afraid of being hit because White will have difficulties containing meon his 2 point even if I come in quickly. It is not even clear that Whiteshould hit me if he does manage to roll an ace. Hitting would give me moreflexibility to make my point in order. 11-2 looks like a standout play.
George Klitsas: 11/5, 9/6.
The super-safe 11/5 7/4 is short-sighted and probably the worst choice. In the subsequent rolls Blue will be obliged, in all probability, to repeatedly leave indirect shots, at a moment when White will have improved his blockade on the other side of the board. By leaving inner blots with 11/8 7/1* or 7/1* 5/2, if hit, Blue has a chance to pick up a second White checker, but there is the danger of entering on White's two point and breaking eventually his own blockade. But the main danger is not that Blue might get hit - this works both ways as we saw. The main danger is that White might enter on Blue's three point or even dance and then Blue might be unable to retain a strong blockade AND cover his inner blot(s). Therefore, I don't vote for any of those alternatives. Remain two candidates that each of them leaves two indirect hits. Making the two point (8/2 5/2) leaves the rolls of 2-5 and 5-2. Creating five active builders (11/5 9/6) leaves 2-6 and 6-2. I thing that in this position it's worth leaving the1/18 shot (when he gets unlucky, notice that Blue has a small life after death chance if he reenters with 2-5 or 2-6 [a fan of 8/2 5/2 would add 2-1!] ) and I vote for the more compact position with no gaps, resulting after 11/5 9/6.
Rob Maier: 11/5, 7/4.
Good things happen to those who wait. This play is even better against someone who won't step up with an ace.
Snowie: 11/8, 7/1*. Bob Stringer: 11/8, 7/1*. Casper van der Tak: 11/5, 7/4. Kit Woolsey: 8/2, 5/2. Chris Yep: 11/8, 7/1*. Summary: It is fascinating to see the panel so divided on what would appear to bea routine technical problem of how best to walk a prime home. Sometimeseven the seemingly easy positions are difficult. I admit I am stillcompletely in the dark on this one.
Probably fairly obviously, numbers that blot in the inner boardare no good. 11/5 7/4 is safe for the moment, but awkward onlarge numbers next time. A play like 11/5 9/6 may be at worstslightly wrong; here, I think it's best, giving a good distributionand very good chances to roll home safely. The time may be rightto leave White the 62, because Blue has 4 nice returns. If Blueis forced to risk a 17-1 shot in the future, White will probablyhave a more threatening forward position.
First, what about the plays that dump a blot in the inner board? Ican't see 7/1*, 5/2 because the prime starts to crumble pretty soon,and it's far from guaranteed that it can be reassembled. I think thetrick is not to do something that's too awkward, and rolling thatprime in when 2 men have already been dumped into the board doesn'tlook easy. 11/2 looks even worse, because the prime could start todissolve on almost the very next roll (consider how a 6-5 would feel).After 11/8, 7/1* looks to be the most flexible of the group -- most ofmy next rolls play ok, and so if I hit that's my choice. Next, whatabout the non-hitting plays? 11/5, 7/4 really piles them up (i.e.,isn't flexible), and while 11/5, 9/6 isn't as inflexible, it gives upa huge joker. So does 8/2, 5/2, but it also starts to fill in theboard and sticks a nice broken prime in front of White. That makes8/2, 5/2 is my non-hitting choice. Bottom line: I can't see givingWhite the joker if I don't have to. 11/8, 7/1* it is.
I do not know, really. I want to keep my 6 prime, and I do not want to leave a 17-1 shot that allows White to hit and escape at the same time. Slotting the 2-point has the disadvantage that it is the wrong point to slot; I do not think this can be correct. 11/5 7/4 has the disadvantage that Blue's next roll might be awkward (some will leave indirect shots, and it will be difficult to fill in the 3 point).
An important factor is finally that Blue is slightly ahead in the race. Blue is doing fine if not hit. Should White be ahead in the race, plays that offer more flexibility in exchange for some shots (say 11/5 9/6) would have more to recommend themselves.
This is a very difficult position. Blue doesn't have much of a racing lead,and the prime is not easy to roll forward. White's blockade is strongenough that plays such as 11/2 or 11/8, 7/1* may be too risky. White couldhit back and win the priming battle, or Blue might not be able to put thepieces together in time.
Playing safe with 11/5, 7/4 makes the followup awkward. A more diversifiedapproach is 11/5, 9/6, which pays off to the 17 to 1 joker but leavesplenty of builders for the three point. The problem is that even if Bluedoes make the three point next turn he will immediately be faced with thejob of making the two point, and his builders might be so well-placed forthat.
Since Blue is going to need the two point soon in any event, I believe theright idea is to make it now. 8/2, 5/2 pays off to the 17 to 1 shot, butif Blue survives that at least his checkers are mobile so the next coupleof rolls will play easily. The point is that Blue doesn't need to rollthe prime forward to win the game. He simply needs to keep White containedfor a few turns while not getting hit. Having an open three point by itselfwon't cost Blue the game.
Keeping the full 6-prime looks essential. Even giving White two numbers to hit and escape (or mostly escape) is too many in my opinion. If Blue could make the next point in line, the 3 point, then I believe leaving two shots would be worth it. Blue can't do that here though, so 11/5 9/6 and 8/2 5/2 look too risky. Of the remaining moves, 7/1* 5/2 looks too awkward to be correct. 11/5 7/4 is also awkward -- it's good if the next roll contains two small numbers, but plays awkwardly on many large numbers. The top two moves, in my opinion, are 11/2 and 11/8 7/1*. Of these I have a slight preference for 11/8* 7/1. Both moves dump a checker past the 3 point, but only 11/8 7/1* has the advantage of hitting White off the ace point. Hopefully, for Blue, White will re-enter on the 2 or 3 point.