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The question is often asked, "How much of backgammon is luck and how much is skill." Of course, we know that the closer the players are in skill, the more luck becomes a factor, but here's my problem with the game. When two world-class players face each other in, say, a 15 point match, am I not right in assuming that the skill difference in their play is not likely to be very great, and therefore the winner will almost surely be the one with the hot dice? In that match, how many times will their decision vary more than a few tenths of a point, and when you add up all the differences, isn't it usually very small? If that is true, they might as well flip a coin and save a lot of aggravation! In the analysis of matches between two recognized, top players, how often is the winner the one who was evaluated to have the worse luck factor of the two (by Snowie or other evaluation of luck)?
Phil Simborg
There is no question that there is a lot of luck in backgammon, and theplayer who gets the best of the dice will usually win even if his playis slightly inferior to his opponent. However it is not true that aplayer's decision will almost never vary from perfection by a small amount.We have all seen the best players in the world make errors which on expectedvalue cost them well over 10% of the value of the cube. Accumulate theseerrors over the length of a 15 point match, and you can come up with somepretty big equity swings.
Let's suppose Player A outplays Player B over the course of a match so thatthe total of Player B's errors (on a 1-cube) are 1.0 more than the totalof Player A's errors (this would not be unreasonable even between two expertsif one of them was playing particularly better than the other that day).Since the average value of the cube during the whole match is probably around2, this means that Player B will have cost the equivalent of 2 points morethan Player A (in equity) for the whole match. This would be the same asgiving Player A a two point spot in the match. My match equity table showsthat a 2-0 lead in a 15 point match gives the leader a 58% chance to win thematch. So, by outplaying his opponent, Player A has increased his chancesof winning the match from 50% to 58%. Not conclusive and luck still playsa big part, of course, but playing well does occasionally earn its rewards.In other words, 8% of the time Player B will have slightly the better dicebut still lose because he has been outplayed. The other 42% of the timethat Player B has the better dice, the dice will have been good enough tomore than compensate for Player A's superior play.
This may not be fully satisfying, but one of the reasons we play and enjoybackgammon is the luck element. It is part of the game, and we must acceptthe fact that virtue is not always rewarded.
Kit Woolsey