|
|
 return to index
|
| 97 131 | White money game Blue |
Chuck Bower: 13/7, 13/12.
"No more Mr. Niceguy" seems to be Kit's slogan this month as we startout with a gut-wrenching decision. Can we pare the choices down? Blue'sgoal is to keep White's back checker trapped, and this is best accomplishedby building a full prime. Could going from five points to four (by playing8/2*) be right? Considering this tactic won't lead to gammons nor gettingmore checkers back, I can't believe it's right. Now we're down to threecandidates.
Let's compare the two plays which start the 6th point in the prime. Two criteria seem to stand out: holding White's checker back for one roll and finishing the prime on the next roll. Building the 7-point now allows White to get away (hop and not get hit back) 26% of the time. After 13/7, 13/12 White escapes only 23% of the time. Slight advantage to slotting the 7-point.If White doesn't highstep the partial prime, then 13/7, 13/12 closes 70% compared to only 45% closures after 13/7, 8/7 and a miss. True, if White rolls 55 or 65 after Blue slots the bar he'll be playing for gammon, but that is in exchange for much of his cube equity so I don't think the gammon threat should play much of a role in the decision. 13/7, 13/12 is the best slotting play.
Now we're down to two plays: 13/7, 13/12 vs. 13/6. Using the samecriteria, White is detained 85% for the 'safe' play, but the prime is closedonly 4% and even throwing in the excellent 64 toss (when White fails to escape)we're still only up to 8% crushers compared to 54% of the time that Whitesucceeds in making the full prime after 13/7, 13/12. After 13/6, much of the time Blue will have a similar decision next time: break the 8-point to hit loose or slot the bar. (True, he will then have a third option of hittingloose with a 4.) If the slot is chosen then, there will be fewer covers.Why give White all those extra chances at escaping? Hey, I can have a slogan for this month's quiz, too. TAKE THE BULL BY THE HORNS! 13/7, 13/12.
Steve Clark: 13/7, 13/12.
13/6 is the answer that always comes to mind in this type of problem. Itleaves no blots to be hit. It keeps as many blocking points aspossible. White does not have many really good rolls against it. Evenif White gets to the outfield, we will have many rolls which hit andkeep our game going well.
Hits on the deuce are attractive when gammons matter but we have limitedgammon chances here so those plays are not as attractive as usual.
The only interesting alternative is 13/7, 13/12. This is a play that iseasy to overlook at the table. It gives up many disaster sequences inexchange for an early resolution of the problem. Often slotting is theplay that has the highest win percentage in this type of position and atdouble match point, I think it would be correct. If I get hit, I stillhave many winning chances so I think this is the correct play here aswell.
Malcolm Davis: 13/6.
Seems clear - can't imagine another play - way too far behind in the race to run offthe anchor - looks big time wrong to slot the 7, or 8 point, with no real prospects for covering the slotted point in the near future - hitting accomplishes way too little in that re-entry on the 24 point still leaves the opponent well ahead in the race.
Hal Heinrich: 13/6.
White is threatening to win by running out with a five and then doubling Blue out if missed. Blue can't really do anything about thatplan. Attacking on the two breaks the eight point and reduces Blue toa four prime. Blue is short on ammo to attack, and the best way to rectify that is to bring a builder in.
Ron Karr: 13/7, 13/12.
The most straightforward way to win is to slot the 6th point ofthe prime, not get hit, then cover, and cruise home, possibly even winning agammon by snagging a second checker. Of course, this risks getting hit andlosing immediately, but when not hit things are easy.Could any other approach be better? The safe play (13/6) leaves me a littlebetter off if White rolls some 5s, since I'll have more return shots. However,I'm still an underdog after most 5s; and the play fails to improve my offensesignificantly, so I'll face almost the same dilemma next time if he doesn'tescape.
After an attacking play, White has no direct escaping numbers, even if he hits.However, I'm breaking my 8 point, which is bad, and even if he doesn't hit back,I'll have to cover, then continue to improve my position before I can lock upthe game. And since he owns the cube, he can double me out if he hits, evenwithout fully escaping.
The attacking plays would be more attractive if White had lots of checkers inthe outfield; then if I did succeed in a closeout, I'd win lots of gammons;here, there won't be many.
So I think slotting is right, especially given that White owns the cube. Whitecan't double until he hits, and then he's lost his market by a significantamount. Of the two candidates, I like taking the extra builder with 13/7 13/12;this makes me a big favorite to cover if missed. If hit, I'll lose a few moregammons, but in most cases White will just double me out anyway.
George Klitsas: 13/7, 13/12.
play a (13/6) Adding a builder on the 6-point is not a great improvement. Blue is in fact postponing a decision (to attack on the two point or slot the bar or the eight point) giving White a chance to leap before he takes that decision. White could (and should) escape with any of seven rolls (5-5, 5-2, 5-3 and 5-4) and, if not hit, he will redouble Blue out. If White stays on the two point, he is better off slotting in his own board with many rolls, which worsens a little his position in most cases, but he might also roll a joker like 3-3 and improve a lot. In general, White should try to make his points in turn, so he should slot the three point rather than the ace point, if he has a choice. I don't think that play a is particularly strong, an opinion backed up by a manual short rollout of 72 games, which resulted in an equity of only +0.22 points per game for Blue.
Play b (13/7 8/7) Appealing as any direct road to victory would. A number-addicted analyzer could even calculate Blue's probability of closing out White's checker behind a six-prime. This analyzer would point out that if White does not roll a six to escape (and hit Blue at the same time), Blue closes his eight point with only (!?) seventeen rolls and hits on the two point with some rolls in excess. But if White rolls that six and escapes and is not hit back immediately by a return-hit, he has a very efficient redouble, on the verge of take-pass territory. This is very bad for Blue and again, a lesson in cube-term thinking . In 108 games, Blue's equity was +0.30 points per game.
Play c (13/7 13/12) Compared to play b, it has + and -.
(+) More cover numbers (making a full prime) if not hit (28 against 17).
(+) Slightly more return-hits if hit.
(+) 6's (the non-escaping numbers in variation c play badly for White but 5's (the non-escaping numbers in variation b) play better for White.
(=) 5-1 , the inconvenient hitting number in variation c, is more or less canceled by 6-5, the inconvenient hitting number in variation b. By the way, I think that 5-1 should be played 23/18* 4/3 and 6-5 should be played 23/17* 6/1.
(=) About same number of gammons (for Blue!) in each variation (roughly 10%).
(+-) The cube. White's recubes are maximal in b, not efficient in c, often on the verge of being too good to double. This is a plus for play c, but a minus (in a way) as well, for White is entitled to go for an undoubled gammon sometimes (for example if he rolls 5-5). In practice, an undoubled gammon realizes in less than 5% of all games, an estimation based on a rollout that I performed, which resulted in an equity of +0.46 points per game for Blue, an improvement over play b.
Play d (13/12 8/2*) Worse than play e (which follows), since failing to slot the bar point seems more crucial than diversifying in the outfield.
Play e (8/2* 8/7) Slotting the bar-point is very important. White could enter on the ace point and be blocked there if Blue manages to make eventually the bar point. In general it's much better (than one thinks) to try to make a compact prime instead of a broken one. Still, if White enters, there is much play left (a common variation is : Blue rolls a five and makes his two point, White enters on the ace point and Blue can't easily make his bar-point - - in fact he must live for awhile with the danger of being hit in the outfield by indirect shots from the White checker on the ace point). In 108 games Blue's equity was +0.34 points per game here.
My vote is for play c, the straightforward and bold approach which is hardly a coincidence in this position, on two counts. First, Blue has spun the cube away, so he is not interested in small plays but in big ones. Second, he is far behind in the race. If he was closer, it would be a different story.
Laila Leonhardt: 13/6.
Keeping the 5 point prime is valuable here and creates a builder to hit loose on the 2 point if White fails to roll a 5. There are 11 out of 36 dice combinations containing 5. Only 5-5 brings the checker to safety, another 6-5 leaves a single shot and an indirect shot, and 4-5 will leave a double shot on the bar point.
Hitting loose would give 12 hitting numbers right away, and leaving the bar or 8 point slotted would leave also leave a direct hit, where in all situations Blue only will have indirect hit from the bar.
Rob Maier: 13/7, 13/12.
The hitting plays leave more shots, and gain less when they survive. Thequiet 13/6 only gains when they roll a 5, and leaves us with similarproblems next time, but with fewer options.
David Montgomery: 13/7, 8/7.
13/6 is reasonable, but I like playing this position more aggressively.Since Blue has already doubled, he'll get the full benefit from anyupside, while White may overshoot her market when things go badly.
The next question is whether to slot or hit. I prefer the slotting plays because the downside doesn't look much greater, but the upsideis superior because of the ability to form a 6-prime.
13/7 8/7 looks like the better slotting play. It upgrades Blue toa solid five prime, gives 17 covers to make a six prime, additional sixes to whack White off the edge, and leaves a tight position.13/7 13/12 gets more covers, but also is riskier with three exposed blots.
Achim Mueller: 13/7, 13/12.
Five possible moves here and three different game plans. With 13/6 Bluesits and waits, what will happen next. 13/12, 8/2* and 8/7, 8/2* putWhite on the bar. 13/7, 8/7 and 13/7, 13/12 try to build a six prime.
Hitting doesn't look right for me. White is favourite to enter. Even ifWhite doesn't hit on the 2-point, Blue will have problems to cover theblot and prevent the White checker from escaping.
Playing 13/6 is not my style. With this move Blue doesn't threatanything. He just sits there and waits for better times.
What about 13/7, 8/7 and 13/7, 13/12? Blue is going for a winning sixprime and puts White under enormous pressure to roll a six (or a five).What is the difference between these two moves? 13/12 with the one givesBlue more numbers to cover. And if White hits the Blue checker, Bluewill have more return shots from the bar while playing 13/7, 13/12. Sothis is my choice.
Snowie: 13/7, 13/12.
I want to complete a full prime, and this maximizes my chances to do so.White has to hit or it is all over. This is the move he doesn't want to seeme play.
Kit Woolsey: 8/2*, 8/7.
A theme which I follow when trying to contain a single back checker is: Don'tlet that checker escape with one die. By hitting, I force White to bothenter and roll an escaping number. I have fives and sixes to complete afive-prime if White doesn't escape.
Summary. All out to make the prime quickly was the big winner.I'm convinced.
Play Votes Score13/7, 13/12 7 10013/6 3 7013/7, 8/7 1 508/2*, 8/7 1 5013/12, 8/2* 0 40
Problem 2
| 121 145 | White money game Blue |
Chuck Bower: B/22, 6/1*.
When getting blitzed, only one thing should enter your mind--SURVIVAL. Ifyou count return shots, all plays but one allow at least 33 return hits. B/22,6/1* gives White only 24 return hits, and some of those allow Blue to anchor up. Forget purity in blitzes, whether you're the attacker or the attackee. B/22, 6/1* gives Blue the best chance at surviving the onslaught.
Steve Clark: B/22, 6/1*.
I hit loose on the ace point in situations where I am fairly desperateto keep my opponent busy. This play leaves a fairly unsatisfactoryposition so should not be made except when the alternative are quiteunattractive.
That is the case here. The alternatives build nothing. They all leaveat least two blots against a stronger board and many good rolls for myopponent. I will hit.
Malcolm Davis: B/22, 6/1*.
Tough play for me - have reduced my hits on the 1 point early in the game, as it is usually wrong. This position may not be an exception, but you have to play something, and B/22,13/8 strips the 13 point and looks pretty awkward. Entering on the 20 point is a bit optimistic, although making the 10 point is a good excuse to strip the mid-point.
Hal Heinrich: B/22, 6/1*.
Blue owns the cube and has rolled an awkward entering number. Enteringand slotting the four or five point can be quickly rejected. It givesWhite a free hand while increasing Blue's exposure. Entering on thetwenty point and making the ten is the thematic play -- making anoutfield point is a real asset in the early going. The problem here isstepping into White's four builders -- it could lead to being gammoned,quickly! Attacking on the ace takes away most of White's point makingnumbers, but exposes an additional blot without building anything. Thethird plausible play is to come in on the twenty-two point and stripthe mid by playing to the eight point. This gives White a free hand,while Blue's builder/blots won't be extended the same courtesy. All inall, slashing on the ace and taking away half of White's roll lookslike the best of a bad bunch.
Ron Karr: B/22, 6/1*.
Entering on the 20 point and making the 10 point gives menice structure; however, that nice structure is likely to remain for the rest ofthe game, while I get closed out and gammoned, given White's excellent supply ofbuilders aiming at the 20 point. Therefore I must try to stay (relatively) outof harm's way by coming in on 22. After that, hitting acts further to protectmy blot, since White can't make any new points. If he hits back, I might beable to make an anchor, and if he doesn't I can start building my board. Allthe alternative 5s don't accomplish anything anyway; this is not the time for"pure" play.
George Klitsas: B/20, 13/10.
Fasten seat belts [13/10]. Above all, don't panic[6/1*]. My vote is for B/20 13/10.
Laila Leonhardt: B/20, 13/10.
Blue owns the cube and is in severe gammon jeopardy here. White will for sure hit loose to try to blitz Blue. By making the 10 point Blue creates a little control, minimizes the numbers of blots and with a return hit of one of White's checkers from the bar might be able to get back in the game.
Rob Maier: B/22, 6/1*.
This seems pretty clear. We are getting pushed around pretty good, andmight get blown off the board if we don't slow White down.
David Montgomery: B/22, 6/1*.
Coming in on the 20 looks too scary. Everything hits and 15 numberspoint while blitzing is exactly what White wants to do.
By hitting on the ace Blue deprives White of most of his pointers.If Blue gets hit on his side, he hopes to anchor. If hit on the otherside, he hopes to smack back. If not hit, he should be able to dosomething good with his builders.
Achim Mueller: B/22, 9/4.
At first I had no clue what I play here. To be honest, I also had noclue what I should not play here. The only move I rejected at once wasB/20, 13/10 (coming under the gun), though even this move has itsmerits. If White doesn't point on the blot, Blue may survive the blitz.But 15 pointing numbers (65, 63, 61, 53, 51, 31, 44, 33, 11) are toomuch for me. So I decide to play b-22 and look for the least horrible"5".
B/22, 6/1* steals half a roll, but for what price? It puts a checker outof the game and leaves four blots. No!
B/22, 13/8 is more save, but strips the midpoint and leaves two uglycandlesticks on the 6- and 8-point.
B/22, 10/5 is more flexible and slots a very valuable point. Same doesB/22, 9/4. Hmmmm! 9/4 leaves the same cover numbers, if Blue will be hitloose on the 22-point, but it leaves less shots on the slot and lessdouble hits. I play B/22, 9/4.
Snowie: B/22, 9/4.
I've got to try to get some structure in this position -- I need inner boardpoints. Love that three duplication.
Kit Woolsey: B/22, 6/1*.
Much as I dislike throwing another checker to the wolves, I don't thinkI can afford to give White his full roll to play. B/20, 13/10 is thestructural play, but it looks like White will have too many good numbers.
Summary: The panel strongly preferred the tempo play, since everything is dangerousanyway. Interesting that Snowie preferred the purer play here.
Play Votes ScoreB/22, 6/1* 8 100B/22, 9/4 2 60B/20, 13/10 2 60B/22, 13/8 0 40B/22, 10/5 0 40
Problem 3
| 144 136 | White money game Blue |
Chuck Bower: 13/7.
Blue has white on the defensive. In addition, blue leads the race. Howcan blue keep these assets? Covering the 1-point helps in both the race andthe blitz (and this position has a LOT of blitz potential). That can't beaccomplished this roll, but how about next roll? 13/7 gives white good coverchances next turn, at little additional risk (15 shots compared to 11 withthe safest alternative). In addition, keeping the single on the 24-pointgives blue some return shots if things go badly. Finally, some 3's next turnwill give blue the option of covering the barpoint--making a solid 5-prime.
Play up to your strengths (race lead and blitz) and into the opponent'sweakness (no board). 13/7 goes farthest in accomplishing these goals.
Steve Clark: 13/9, 10/8.
I see no point to moving from the 24 point so I would not do it. 13/7used to be the "expert play", but rollouts have not generally supportedsuch plays. I see no particular need to make that play here.
10/4 brings another builder into range but that play is not on theEditor's selection list. Of the 3 remaining plays none stand out asclearly superior. 13/9 offers up a joker to opponent but givesattractive possibilities for making points next roll. After that 10/8seems slightly better diversification. A spare on the 8 point is usefulbecause we can use it to make another point next roll without having togive up the 8. I will play 13/9, 10/8.
Malcolm Davis: 13/7.
Looks best to me - at least it avoids duplicating the aces - I usually try to avoid duplicating numbers except very late in the game to minimize shots when getting hit is fatal, although I am aware that it is sometimes otherwise right. It's just that making a play solely because of duplication is often wrong. Coming out to the 18 point seems premature. 24/20, 13/11 and 24/22 13/9 might be reasonable alternatives.
Hal Heinrich: 24/18.
Blue is up in the race, so aiming for a race is an appropriate plan. This plan is best served by moving up from the back. Note that acesare duplicated, so the danger to the blot on the mid-point is minimal.
Ron Karr: 13/7.
I can't cover the 1 point, but I still want to focus on offense,since White is vulnerable and has little offense himself, so I may as well putmy checkers where I most want them. I see no reason to move any of the backcheckers now. If not hit, I'll have various options next time: make my barpoint, or make the ace point or other inner board point and keep attacking.Worst case, I get hit twice with 1-6, but even then, White will have to improvesignificantly before winning with the cube.
George Klitsas: 13/7.
Play a (24/18) I reject this play thinking that this checker is useful on the twenty four point controlling any checkers that White is obliged to dump or wants to slot in his inner board. Blue should plan to move from the bar point, not to put a third checker on it.
Play b (24/20 13/11) Probably worse than play a. Loose hits by White with aces and three's , not to mention double-aces and double-three's is what Blue risks in this variation, with no visible reward. Saving the checker on the midpoint is of little importance since hitting aces are duplicated for White.
Play c (24/22 13/9) Similar to play b, a little better perhaps.
Play d (13/7) Risking the double-hit if White rolls 6-1, as well as four more hitting numbers from the bar, namely 2-5 and 3-4. This is not the end of the world. Blue will reenter on White's one-point board and in all probability, will hit something in the future (more probable with three checkers back, than with one or two). This does not mean that Blue is happy to have checkers sent back, losing race ground - simply he doesn't care much. On the plus side of the play, Blue could :
*make a five-point prime by closing his bar point. This fact would untie his hands to play freely in the outfield. In fact Blues position is cramped and in the other variations he has great difficulty in disengaging from his anchor on White's bar point.
*close the ace-point with a six especially when White flunks .
*re-hit on the ace-point..
*close the bar-point with an ace or a six from the mid-point forming a four-prime, especially if White enters by hitting on Blue's ace point.
*use it as an additional builder if Blue enters awkwardly from the bar (for example with a 3-2).
Still, the main idea is to make the five-point prime. If Blue makes it, even if White manages to come to the edge and later leap with a six, White must live with the danger of being hit somewhere and start over. In a short rollout (72 games) Blue won 0.4 points per game.
Play e (13/9 10/8) Probably second best. Adding a builder for the three-point with minimal additional risk (the hitting 3-6 from the bar) which is acceptable in a vast number of backgammon positions, reinforcing also the eight point with a spare. A nice position with essentially only one blot, but not a very menacing one. In a manual rollout of 72 games , Blue got even (0 points per game).
Play f (13/9 6/4) Worse than e, since 6/4 is worse than 10/8.
Play g (13/11 10/6) Trying not to lose. As I told above, I firmly believe that two additional (and not decisive) hits (3-6) are worth the risk, in order to focus on a possible landing point and to diversify in the outfield as well, instead of stacking another checker on the six point.
Anyway, slotting the bar-point seems vastly superior than any of these small plays and my vote goes for play d (13/7). Having given the cube away argues for play d, as well.
Laila Leonhardt: 13/7.
The cube is turned, White has no board and Blue's priority is to get a prime built right away to contain White when he enters from the bar. Getting hit on 7 still leaves Blue in a strong position, and the gain from making the bar or having an extra builder to continue the attack on White is huge.
Rob Maier: 13/9, 6/4.
White is on the ropes, go for the kill. Leave the back checker alone, itwill threaten any blot White has to leave when(if) they come in. 13/9brings down another builder, and 6/4 gives us better diversification tocontinue the blitz.
David Montgomery: 13/7.
Blue's goals are to try to make the bar point, completing a 5-prime,and to bring more wood for a possible attack. There is no rush to move the back checker. It covers White's inner board and makes afew of White's entries uncomfortable. If Blue moves the midpoint blot,he may as well slot the 7 point. That will leave four (additional) shots,but putting the checker on the 9 point would leave two, and putting iton the 11 doesn't bear on the inner board and leaves an unproductive 4.
Achim Mueller: 13/9, 10/8.
Puh, for me this one is the most difficult of all eight problems. It'snot the position itself, that is so complicated. I guess, in atournament I would play this roll within a minute. But here, in acompetition with seven possibilities and lots of chances to blameyourself...
I like the checker on the 24-point. White will only reluctantly slot ahome board point, as long as the parasite is waiting there. So I won'tmove this checker and cross out three of the seven offered moves. 13/11,10/6 doesn't accomplish anything besides saving a blot. All otherremaining possibilities bring down builders for Blue's homeboard.
13/7 goes straight forward, but it also leaves 15 shots for White. And -more important for me - the checker on the 10-point isn't a builder forBlue's homeboard. Same is valid for 13/9, 6/4. What I didn't mention yetis another factor: Blue's 8-point. Paul Magriel always says, that the8-point is the most underestimated point in backgammon. In bothvariations Blue has only two checkers on his 8-point. If White enters onthe 23-point, Blue's 8-point will be freezed with only two checkers.Let's take a look at the third alternative 13/9, 10/8:
All builders in direct range to Blue's homeboard, three checkers on the8-point and only 13 shots for White. The more I look at this positon,the more I like this move. My choice: 13/9, 10/8.
Snowie: 24/18.
Not clear where I want my other checkers, but I know I want that backchecker up on the 18 point rather than back on the 24 point. I put mycheckers where I want them to be.
Kit Woolsey: 13/7.
Seems right to bring in the reinforcements. My play prepares to eithercover the blot on the ace point or complete the five-prime next roll, aswell as avoiding the comlications of leaving a blot on the midpoint. Nothingelse appears to accomplish as much.
Summary: On a difficult problem with many possibilities, the majority of the panel wentfor the agressive slot of the bar point. Looks ok to me. I don't understandfiddling with the back checker.
Play Votes Score13/7 7 10024/18 2 7013/9, 10/8 2 7013/9, 6/4 1 6024/20, 13/11 0 5024/22, 13/9 0 5013/11, 10/6 0 50
Problem 4
| 110 139 | White money game Blue |
Chuck Bower: 23/21, 6/5.
Blue's game plan is straightforward: hit a White checker and then contain it. Making the 21-point might be reflexive, but it gives Whitea weak holding game. Keeping the 22-point fits better with the gameplan.
Blue's backmost checker on the 23-point should get our focus. Isthat checker location helping or hurting? It's not obvious, but if weconsider timing, then Blue's isn't all that great so he will probably needto get that back checker out before it can be a thorn in White's side.Thus moving this checker up one or two spots looks right. I think we'renow down to two plays: 23/21, 6/5 or 23/22, 10/8.
I did 36 hand rollouts of each of these plays and the results werequite close, which is not surprising. You can never do enough handrollouts to get a statistically significant result on a close decision, but what you CAN find out is how the games will develop. Flavorwise, Blue wins more games with 23/21, 6/5 but loses more gammons. Another thing I noticedis that no matter which play Blue makes, he's likely to have to give upthe his midpoint before White gives up hers. This hints that slottingthe 5-point now isn't mandatory as there will be more builders coming downsoon to help.
The advantage of 23/21, 6/5 is threefold. Besides making the 5-pointmore quickly (a small but still valuable asset for this move), it gets theback checker closer to escape (helping the timing) and puts pressure onWhite's blot on the 15-point. The downside is that nine rolls point onBlue's head, increasing the gammon danger and making it easier for Whiteto slip home with Blue on the bar. It's close, but to break the tie Ilike the play which leads to more wins. 23/21, 6/5 is my choice.
Steve Clark: 23/22, 10/8.
In general I see holding the 22 point as superior to holding the 21. White will have more difficulty getting by us if there is a gap he hasto cross. After that decision there are two aces which I want toplay, 23/22 and 6/5. I do not want to stay back on the 23. Such blotsare more often targets than threats. At the same time 6/5 is importantso that we can soon have a stronger board when we get our shot.
It is a bit hard to judge which is more important, (If it was easy, thisproblem wouldn't be included in the problem set.) But I judge that Ireally want to have the 3rd back man on the 22 point. I do not reallywant him on the 21 as in 23/21, 6/5 because again he is likely toattract points on his head. I really want to slot the 5 point but Iwill have to give it up here. 23/22, 10/8 is my play.
Malcolm Davis: 23/21, 22/21.
Am running out of time, and hate to make the the 21 point.Would prefer to have my opponent bear in over the potential gap, however, don't believe I have enough time to stay back.
Hal Heinrich: 23/22, 10/8.
Making the twenty-one point is wrong-headed as it makes White's task ofbearing in easier. The real question here is whether to keep the blot on the twenty-three point in order to get and hit more shots as White comes home. With White's four point still open, hanging back on the twenty-three point is thematic and strong. However, timing considerations argue for advancing to the twenty-two point in order torun out and help build the home board -- and to avoid crashing it! Asthe blot on the twenty-three point is a target as well as a policeman,the timing considerations take priority.
Ron Karr: 23/21, 6/5.
Since I'm fairly far behind in the race, I'll opt for moreshots by staying on the 22 point. Sometimes White can't make the 4 point, sohis bearin becomes more awkward. Coming up to 21 with the spare gives moreescaping numbers, and I don't think it's too dangerous: White can't attack toofreely given my 4-point board. Even if I get pointed on I don't expect to losetoo many gammons. With the 1, slotting seems right since my 5 point is crucial.
George Klitsas: 23/21, 6/5.
Play a (23/21 22/21) Being 26 pips behind (after playing) is a fact that should deter Blue from advancing the anchor. Despite of some immediate chance of hitting a shot (if White rolls 6-6, 6-1 or 4-3) all Blue usually gets here is a four-point holding game with little hope of hitting anything in the future and slim chances in the race, not to mention occasional gammons that occur when Blue is pointed by White on the three point. In a 36-games manual cubeful rollout Blue lost 1.34 points per game.
Play b (23/21 10/9) Worse than...
Play c (23/21 6/5) ...for slotting a point is usually the fastest and safest (=with maximum probability of success) way to make it. This position is no exception. If Blue does not slot now, he might just not roll suitable numbers to slot it in the future or make it naturally. The five point is absolutely needed to cash the game in case of hitting a White blot. This scenario is much more probable in comparison with variation a. Here White leaves a shot with 6-6 and 6-1 for starters, but it's surprising the number of later shots (even repeated and double ones sometimes at the end that this ensemble [Blue anchored on the three point, gap on the four, White having a four-point prime from the five to the eight point] produces). White should make his ten point in the process if this could be done conveniently, which could help a little. In a 36-games rollout Blue lost only 0.78 points per game, a great improvement over play a.
Play d (23/22 10/8) Fails to slot the five point and gains the need timing (escaping with the spare from White's board) only with sixes compared to fives and sixes as in variation c.
Play e (10/8 6/5) Timing is fragile in this position, so moving to the twenty-one point has highest priority and this play fails to do that.
So we have a play here and a clear plan that accomplishes everything. Moves to the edge of White's prime with the spare in order to leap to the outfield and retain the fragile and marginal timing (priority number one) and slots the five point (priority number two) in order to make it soon and cash in the case of hitting something. Play c (23/21 6/5) is the winner by far.
Laila Leonhardt: 23/21, 22/21.
Blue owns the cube and wants to reach a position where he will ensure getting an early shot or get off the gammon. By making the 21 point he occupies the point that White would like to make to be able to clear safely. The checker on the 3 point will serve as a phantom 3-4 backgammon, making it more difficult for White to get past him. Blue should work on escaping the back checker from the 21 point to conserve timing to keep the 13 point and thereby the pressure on White midpoint.
Rob Maier: 23/22, 10/8.
Down in the race, the last thing we want to do is help White come home.Making the four point is out, we will get more shots from the three, evenif they manage to make the four. We also don't want to leave a blot intheir home board, as pointing on it could give them the opportunity tomake the four point with out leaving a direct shot, not to mention losing a few more gammons. So, 23/22 and 10/8.
David Montgomery: 23/21, 22/21.
Blue's goals are to spring the third back checker and build up his board.Getting the back checker out is not so easy, so Blue should take this opportunity to move it up. With this roll, Blue also gets to choose from which point he wants to try to hit a shot.
If White fails to make the four point for many rolls, Blue will be much better off staying back on the 22 than shifting up. On the other hand, if White makes it anytime soon, Blue will generally wish he had made it instead. Blue should not come up to the 4 point without making it, sincethat makes it easier for White to make it without leaving a direct shot.
A small factor favoring making the 21 point is that it bears on White's10 point blot. White may not be able to play as flexibly since he mustmove this blot to safety. Although I'm very tempted to play 23/22 10/8 and hope that White fails to fill the gap, I'll make the 21 point.
Achim Mueller: 23/21, 6/5.
After 22/21, 23/21 the position looks very static for me. White'scheckers are well positioned against a high anchor game (a four prime,the bar point and three spare checkers). And Blue has an ugly hole inhis homeboard (the 5-point).
Blue can't win without making his own 5-point. He should slot it nowwith the "1". But where is the "2"? If he plays 10/8, sixes and fiveswon't play well for him in the next roll. 23/21 is another kind of"coming under the gun", but I guess it's not so decisive here. Bluestill has the 22-anchor, and he won't get gammoned very often afterbeing hit on the 21-point. My choice here is 23/21, 6/5.
Snowie: 23/21, 22/21.
Simple plays for simple minds. The more advanced anchor is best. We justdon't have enough time to play from a deeper anchor.
Kit Woolsey: 23/21, 6/5.
My shot-hitting chances are better from the 22 point thanthe 21 point. It doesn't look like I will have time to hang back onthe 23 point, so moving up preparing to escape is the right idea.
Summary: On a tough play, the panel chose to hang back on the 22 point and wait forthe shot. A very reasonable choice.
Play Votes Score23/21, 6/5 5 10023/21, 22/21 4 9023/22, 10/8 3 8023/21, 10/9 0 5010/8, 6/5 0 50
Problem 5
| 158 162 | White money game Blue |
Chuck Bower: 11/5, 3/1.
Up to now this has been an all-out blot hitting contest--neither sidehas made a new point. 22 is a nice roll for Blue and he has a choice toalter the trend. The race is now even, so Blue should give considerationto protecting his race equity. But White is currently defenseless, sokeeping the pressure on is also important.
Hitting (and pointing) keeps the pressure on but leaves shots whichrisk the race equity. Leaving the blot on the 1-point makes it harderto play aggressively in the future, and gives White some additionaloutlets if he chooses to make a bold play.
11/5, 3/1 is Blue's best all-around play. It makes the most valuable remaining offensive point, protects the race lead, and puts considerable pressure on White to anchor up or face a renewed attack.
Steve Clark: 11/5, 3/1.
How did I get in such a position? Maybe I took over in the middle ofthe game from someone else. 11/5, 3/1 looks like a nice sensible move. I build a strong board and hope for good things to happen. Both 13/9,11/9, 5/3 and 24/22, 13/11, 5/3 are much the same; we put our positiontogether and are a clear favorite. I do like the first move best ofthese three, however. It builds a 3 point board so that our threats aremore serious. Also I make my 5 point which is always important. Iwould be more concerned with escaping if our opponent had more threatsin that sector, but one should usually play to where the action is sothe first move seems more attractive.
Of the two hitting plays 8/4, 6/4, 5/3 must be superior. It makes thehigher point without haveing any drawback that I can see. In comparisonto 11/5, 3/1 this play has the advantage that we will have a strongdouble when White flunks, but it has the strong disadvantage of leavinga lot of blots around. Assuming the game goes on, I would much ratherhave my 5 point and fewer blots. I will play 11/5, 3/1.
Malcolm Davis: 8/4*, 6/4, 3/1.
Love to attack - how bad can it be?
Hal Heinrich: 11/5, 3/1.
Blue has a lot of cleaning up to do -- and this is a fine roll to doit. Making two inner board points consolidates Blue's position andprepares to continue the attack next roll. White's twos are duplicatedfor anchoring and attacking the blot on the four point.
Ron Karr: 11/5, 3/1.
I definitely want to focus on offense, so making the 22 pointcan't be right. The attacking plays are tempting, but getting hit back willdefinitely blunt my attack, since I already have 3 checkers back, and I don'thave enough ammo yet to have great blitzing chances. By making the 3-pointboard, I have good options for next time: if White doesn't anchor, I can attackwith better chances, and if he does anchor, his position is so undeveloped thatI won't have much trouble coming around, and I'll have good chances to hit somemore blots & gain in the race.
George Klitsas: 8/4*, 6/4, 5/3.
In all probability a loose play at some point on Blue's part resulted in this mess. So the actual Blue must rest for awhile in the other room and our task is to try to repair his position in such an extend, that, when he shows up again to continue his game, he should have little difficulty in doing so. Joking of course, actually on the verge between joking and being serious. Looking at the resulting positions after each play (mentally or moving checkers on a backgammon set) one sees that there is only one play, namely 8/4* 6/4 5/3. We (I don't say �Blue� - he is punished in the other room) are not afraid of having our checker on the ace point recirculated, if White hits with an ace from the bar. We will have been left with three good points made in our inner board. White might flunk as well and then we have a double. Let's look at the other plays for the sake of completeness. Unthincable and worst of all (along with 13/9 11/9 5/3) is 24/22(2) 13/11 5/3 since White is not threatening with some kind of a prime - he has not even a skeleton of a prime. Obviously worse than the suggested play is also 8/4* 6/4 3/1. Second best is the play I left last, 11/5 3/1. Second best because this game demands, calls and screams for structure, not direct, indirect or potential blots. Could the real Blue, returning from his punishment, destroy again the position after play d? Not easily. He could easily destroy the resulting positions after any of the other plays, I figure.
Laila Leonhardt: 8/4*, 6/4, 5/3.
Making a 3-point board and putting a checker on the bar is a strong play. The cube hasn't been turned yet, and if White dances, then Blue is close to having a very strong cube. Even when White hits the checker on the 1 point and Blue will have 4 men back in White's homeboard, the 3-point board is a strong asset.
Making the 1 point instead of the 3 point would create problems for Blue if White succeeds to anchor. The checkers on the acepoint would be out of play to the very end, and be missing valuables in the rest of the game.
Rob Maier: 8/4*, 6/4, 5/3.
Nice position. It seems clear to make some three point board and to hit,which leaves making the 4 and 3 or the 4 and ace. The ace point leaves usin better shape if they fan, but I think it hurts us too much when theydon't. Better to have a good position and see what happens.
David Montgomer: 11/5, 3/1.
Among the non-hitting plays, I like 11/5 3/1 because it makes the bestpoint and a three point board, which none of the other plays do.
Between the two pointing plays, I prefer making the 3 point with the final deuce. Making the ace point leaves more covers for the 5, but since Blue is so likely to get hit, it seems he should just grab the better point.
Blue is a little light on material to complete a blitz, and getting hit will stall Blue's offense. White is under some pressure after8/4 6/4 5/3, but not a tremendous amount since Blue isn't likely tocover the acepoint immediately. By quietly playing 11/5 3/1, Blue maintains his ability to attack later, avoids losing his offensivematerial, and leaves White with a position where it's difficult to accomplish much.
Achim Mueller: 11/5, 3/1.
Though there are doubles to play here, this problem seems to be theeasiest of all eight for me. A few general considerations: White'sposition hasn't developed yet. Neither has he a defensive anchor norany more homeboard or outerboard points. Look at the candlesticks on the6-,8- and 13-point. The race is even. Blue has one more checker backand five blots. With double two's Blue is able to make his five point,to make a three point board and to cover four of his blots. Three wishesfulfilled in one move? Is that possible? Yes, playing 11/5, 3/1 Blue isonly one bad White roll away from doubling.
Snowie: 11/5, 3/1.
We simply aren't ready yet to carry out an attack. My play gives Whitenothing to shoot at while building up the board for the future.
Kit Woolsey: 11/5, 3/1.
Simply nailing everything down now and preparing to attack next roll looksbest. 8/4*, 6/4, 5/3 looks premature. This gives White too many goodrolls, and even if White rolls badly we don't have the ammunition to followthrough.
Summary: Our normally bloodthirsty panel was willing to pull in its horns a bit andopt for the quiter approach. Seems right.
Play Votes Score11/5, 3/1 8 1008/4*, 6/4, 5/3 3 708/4*, 6/4, 3/1 1 5024/22(2), 13/11, 5/3 0 4013/9, 11/9, 5/3 0 40
Problem 6
| 110 157 | White money game Blue |
Chuck Bower: B/22, 8/7.
Blue has a timing problem. White has lots of spares and can treadwater for several rolls. Blue has to get that odd back checker loose realsoon. B/22, 23/22 takes away some of White's best rolls, but leaves Blue some very awkward 6's and does little to improve timing. B/24, 8/5 is reasonably safe, but Blue had better be getting a 6, 51, or 42 pretty quickly. B/22, 8/7 seems best for Blue's timing. 4's and 6's both jump the obstacle.If pointed upon, this play saves most of Blue's (meager) pips on the homeside.
It will do Blue little good to hit a shot after his board has been bulldozed.B/22, 8/7 is scary because some good rolls by White will leave Blue with somegammon danger. However, when fighting for your life, it's no time to view thecup as half empty.
Steve Clark: B/24, 8/5.
I don't really want to make the 22 point. If you are so far behind thatyou are dependent on a hit in order to win, it is usually better to havea gap in front of you. This problem is similar to problem 4 in thisway.
Also I want to keep the spare in the position where it is unlikely to behit and hast the most opportunity to escape. It may or may not be morelikely to escape from the 22 point than the 24, but it certainly is muchsafer on the 24. That is where I will put it. B/24, 8/5.
Malcolm Davis: B/22, 23/22.
May not be right, but again, it looks like I don't have enough time to indulge in the luxury of forcing my opponent to bear in over a gap that very well may not be there later anyway. For sure, it is better for avoiding the gammon.
Hal Heinrich: B/24, 8/5.
The natural impulse here is to make to twenty-two point -- especiallyas Blue's timing is problematic. Here, however White's sixes don't playwell while Blue holds the twenty-three point. So Blue should try toexploit this feature of the position. Coming in on the twenty-four point is the way to do that -- Blue doesn't want to be pointed on, andso stays back from White's attackers.
Ron Karr: B/24, 8/5.
This is a tough one. In terms of getting shots, I'd rather havethe 23 point than the 22 point, since I'm buried in the race (and I can't bedoubled out). However, making the 22 point has a few advantages. First, I'mless likely to get gammoned; I'd rather let White point on my spare on the 23point than on the 22 point (if I played B/22, 8/7). Second, by making the 22point I don't have to play any of my forward checkers, and I'm worried abouthaving to advance my board too fast.
However, if I make the 22 point, 6s are bad: I'll either have to play deep to my2 point, or else break White's bar point. On the other hand, if I play B/248/5, I have 6s to escape, 5s and 2s to slot the 3 point. And the blot on 24 isrelatively safe if I can't move it for a while.
George Klitsas: B/22, 8/7.
As in problem 4 and more or less on the same grounds, Blue has a clear plan here. Keep his anchor on White's two point, move the spare to White's three point and hope to roll soon a six or a four to move it to the outfield and gain the time needed to avoid breaking his anchor on White's bar-point. So B/22 8/7 is the play.
Laila Leonhardt: B/24, 8/5.
Coming in on the 24 gives the biggest flexibility for Blue. Leaving 6 to escape, and most other numbers to work on making the 3 point. White will not be pointing on White on the 24 point, so Blue might have a chance for an indirect shot if White fails to safety the blot on the 16 points.
Rob Maier: B/24, 8/5.
Same theme as problem 4. We don't want to advance the anchor, and the 22point does not seem like a healthy place to leave a blot.
David Montgomery: B/22, 8/7.
Blue has to hit a shot. In the meantime his goals are to plug histhree point and pump the third back checker out so that he can maintain his board and back points. By coming in on the 22 Bluewill find it easier to run this third checker. And staying back on the 23 point may prove beneficial for getting shots.
Achim Mueller: B/24, 8/5.
Problem 6 is one of these ugly "it seems to be very easy to find theright answer" problems. When I first looked at it, I thought: Ok, makingthe 22-point with B/22, 23/22, what else? After a deeper look into theposition I changed my mind. Try to imagine the following scenario: Bluemakes the 22-point, White rolls average (for example 32), Blue rolls a"6". And now? Should Blue put another checker on his 2-point or shouldhe either break the 22- or the 18-point?
What happens after Blue plays B/24, 8/5 or B/22, 8/7? With sixes he canmove his "lonely" checker from behind, with a "5" he may slot his own3-point. And Blue will be able to keep his two defensive anchors for afew more rolls. But which of these two moves is the best? I guess thereisn't much difference, but I don't like a blot on the 22-point. So I gofor B/24, 8/5.
Snowie: B/22, 23/22.
No reason to do anything fancy. We will still have plenty of winning chancesplaying from the 22 point, and the gammon danger goes down.
Kit Woolsey: B/24, 8/5.
Once again, our shot-hitting chances are better if we hold the deeperanchor. Since I can escape from the 24 point and I have a couple ofcheckers to play with, it doesn't seem necessary to enter on the 22 pointand risk getting pointed on.
Summary: The popular choice was to hang back as far as possible. This increases thechances of getting a shot. Looks like our bot has gammon on its mind.
Play Votes ScoreB/24, 8/5 7 100B/22, 8/7 3 70B/22, 23/22 2 60
Problem 7
| 131 156 | White money game Blue |
Chuck Bower: 20/15, 13/11.
This seems to be a common theme in the GoL quiz--keep an opponent checkerbehind a prime. Blue is far behind in the race, but has strong positionaladvantages. Blue would like to add to the prime (7-point or 8-point) and atthe same time be in position to swat White's back checker if it jumps into the outfield. Which play goes the farthest in facilitating BOTH these objectives?
13/8 slots the valuable 8-point, fulfilling one of Blue's objectives.But if White jumps into the outfield, that checker won't help in sending itback. 13/11 is a nice builder AND it's a good bullet if White rolls 51, 61, 62, or 63. That looks like half the roll.
Now the five will be played either 21/16 or 20/15. If White had a betterboard, Blue might want to minimize blots, but here White is the one who needsto tread lightly. 20/15 better covers Blue's outfield, both for shooting andbuilding. The pressure is clearly on White and Blue should do everything in his power to maintain White's stress. 20/15, 13/11 challenges White to dig deep into his bag of lucky rolls.
Steve Clark: 21/14.
Trailing blots aren't very useful. They are ok back on the 24 point butas they advance, they don't get many shots and they attract enemy pointslike honey draws flies. If I move that guy out to the 14 point, whitewill have a more difficult time escaping his rear blot. Furthermore, itwill give me more opportunity to make a useful point in the outifield.
I would not give much thought to 21/16, 13/11 if White had a strongerboard. But here it might be right. The increased diversification isvaluable while white's blots and weak board mean that getting hit isless damaging than usual. This might be the right move, but I doubt ifit can be so much stronger that I would really make it.
Actually I use this type of analysis all the time, and I have neverheard anyone describe it. If I can't determine which of two plays isbetter, I often look to see which one is unlikely to be much worse whenthe other is superior. In this way I try to minimize the effects of anyerrors that I make.
In this position I judge that 21/14 is either modestly better or, ifworse, is very close to being equal, and I would make that play.
Malcolm Davis: 20/15, 13/11.
Could be a little loose - lots of blots. 21/16, 13/11 could be preferable.Or perhaps 21/14. 20/13 has to be too conservative, and 13/6 is definitely the wrong idea.Bringing builders in for the attack is extremely optimistic. Quite likely, by the time you are ready, there won't be anything there to attack. With the blot the opponents 3 point, I will stay with 20/15, 13/11.
Hal Heinrich: 21/14.
Blue is short of home board builders to go after White's straggler, andso must contain that checker by other means -- namely outfield control.Coming to the fourteen point gives Blue double coverage if White runsout. The danger of being hit is tolerable because of White's raggedhome board.
Ron Karr: 21/14.
My main goal is to prevent White's back checker from escaping(although I still have chances if it escapes). By playing 21/14, I have goodcoverage of my outfield if White tries to run. I'm not too worried aboutgetting hit, because there will be several return shots, & getting a secondchecker hit will cost White dearly. This play gives lots of flexibility formaking my 7 & 8 points and circulating my other spare.
George Klitsas: 20/15, 13/11.
The name of the game is outfield control here. As I looked at the position, 20/15 13/11 was my first (and my last) thought. Blue is behind in the race, has the much stronger board and the main dangers are that White might escape with his back checker, or that White might form a strong board himself. In that spirit the checker left on White's four point is useful, impeding White from playing conveniently rolls like 6-3 and 5-4 and spreading checkers in the outfield controls White's escaping numbers.
Laila Leonhardt: 20/15, 13/11.
White still only has a 2-point board, and this is a good time for Blue to cover as much area as possible, trying to get another of White's checkers behind the primer, or make the bar point.
Rob Maier: 21/16, 13/11.
I'm pretty confident about the two, 13/11 will do a lot in terms ofcontaining the back checker. I can't seem to make up my mind about the 5.In fact, I changed my mind again as I wrote this. I think having an extrablot gives White too much opportunity to skate home by attacking us.
David Montgomery: 20/15, 13/11.
Blue wants to cover the outfield to prevent White from escaping his last checker. He can play wide open - every aspect of the positioncalls for a bold play. 20/15 13/11 gives Blue maximum control ofthe outfield. Next turn Blue should be able to make an additionaloutfield point to maintain control even after White strengthens herboard.
Achim Mueller: 20/15, 13/11.
Blue is behind in the race and he has 4 checkers back vs one Whitechecker. But he's still a slight favourite for a few reasons: A highanchor, a four point board and all checkers in play! His strong boardleads to a move that mixes up the position a little bit. Blue hasn't tofear an exchange of hits. There is no need in a save play like 20-13. Ilike to go for maximum outfield control. My choice is 20/15, 13/11. Thismove covers the most outer points, keeps all checkers in directcommunication and duplicates three's. Must be the best.
Snowie: 20/15, 13/11.
Outfield coverage is the name of the game. White has no board, so thereis little to worry about. Note the nice three duplication to boot.
Kit Woolsey: 20/15, 13/11.
Full efforts for outfield coverage. I must prevent that back checkerfrom escaping. Considering the state of White's board, my blots aren'tin much danger. Flexibility is the key.
Summary: The panel strongly agreed that flexibility and outfield coverage has numberone priority here. Almost surely the right view.
Play Votes Score20/15, 13/11 8 10021/14 3 7021/16, 13/11 1 5020/13 0 4020/18, 13/8 0 4013/6 0 40
Problem 8
| 141 179 | White money game Blue |
Chuck Bower: B/20, 7/4.
Kent Goulding diagnoses Blue's illness as TMP--"too many points".This roll forces Blue to give up one of his valuable sentries--the 20-,13-, or 7-point. Which will it be?
Maybe this is the kind of quiz problem where the outlandish playis best, but I'm not biting. 20/15 gives White 9 powerful pointingthrows and several which hit the loose checker in the outfield. White's61 looks like a risky, but possibly correct double hit. If left alone,Blue will be scrambling to remake the 20-point, so why give it up soeasily when there are reasonable alternatives.
Breaking the midpoint is a one-sided ploy. By completely surrenderingthe outfield, Blue is effectively saying "I'm proud of my 3-5 backgameand I'm putting all my eggs in that basket." I don't think White would havea double (yet), but why make a unilateral decision?
When I first looked at this problem I immediately rejected 7/4.Efficiency argues that Blue should be keeping his hard-earned 4-prime.In addition, a spare on the 4-point is unsightly. However, I now see this move as the least of evils. By sacrificing the barpoint, Blue keeps his more valuable 20- and 13-points and maintains timing with the spare on the 20-point. White must step cautiously with no board, and the 13-point keeps maximum pressure on the White's four back checkers. Getting another blot sent back is not a major concern, and Blue will have quite a few rolls to play forward. Failing that, the 3-5 backgame remains as a safety valve.
Steve Clark: B/20, 13/10.
If B/22, 20/15 is the right answer, the game is something other thanbackgammon. B/22, 13/8 leaves multi shots while not getting the checkeron the bar up to the starting line. We should play B/20 so he canescape more easily next time.
White has many men piled up on the 17 and 19 points. He does not haveenough men left to make a prime in front of us. As a result the shotswe leave when playing the 3 are not too damaging. (In fact playing 6/3isn't really too bad.) Even so we should avoid extra blots whenpossible, but here 13/10 has the benefit of keeping our 4 point primeintact. We are already well behind in the race. It will not do toomuch damage to get a little further behind. Besides we might be able toget a hit in outside part of the board. Then the strength of our 4prime might show to better advantage.
Malcolm Davis: B/20, 13/10.
In spite of the ace duplication. I am not breaking the prime, and any play that includes B/22 must be excluded - look at it, and I am certainly not running off the 20 point!
Hal Heinrich: B/20, 7/4.
Blue has a choice of assets to give up -- and the least of these assetsis the seven point. Both the twenty and mid points are much more valuable in this position. White is well positioned to escape Blue'sblockade, while Blue doesn't have the builders to extend the prime orattack White's straggler.
Ron Karr: B/22, 20/15.
I hate to give up the midpoint in a position like this,because outfield control is very important (I don't relish playing this as abackgame; my anchors are too far advanced). I also hate to break my 4-prime, soby default I'm giving up the 20 point. This isn't as risky as it might look. Ihave the stronger board & prime, so White has to be very careful about hittingloose; and even if he rolls a joker like 3-1, he still has lots of checkers toget past my points.
George Klitsas: B/20, 7/4.
Another easy piece. Not so easy. Breaking the midpoint with any of two candidate plays is weak, ceding outfield control and at the same time practically throwing away any race equity (that is quite real here). Play d (B/20 7/4) is the obvious choice but play a (B/22 20/15) weird as it looks and alien to our mental patterns, is close. Frankly I can't say how close, I am just not sure, could be even better than play d. Still I believe that if White plays well (hitting often on his five point with aces and three's - especially with aces) then B/20 7/4 which avoids that bad scenario of Blue losing for ever his anchor on White's five point) should come out as a marginal winner over the other play. I also feel more comfortable with play d and, although I noticed during a small rollout that it produces many optimal doubles for White, I stick on it and I vote for it.
Laila Leonhardt: B/20, 7/4.
Tough choice. It is tempting to leap off the 20 point and take advantage of the duplication and keep the 4 point prime. But giving up the anchor on the 20 point could be costly for Blue. Breaking the 4 point prime, creating an extra attacker for the 3 point in case White fails to come out doesn't in anyway deteriorate Blue's position. And entering on the 20 point gives Blue good flexibility for outfield control.
Rob Maier: B/20, 7/4.
I don't know how popular this one is going to be. However, I don't thinkit is correct to break either the 20 point or the mid point, and this isall that is left. Breaking the midpoint takes all the pressure off afterthe checkers are hit, and leaving the 20 point just looks like a bad idea.
David Montgomery: B/20, 7/4.
Blue should still be trying to win by playing against the four checkerson his side of the board. Plays like B/22 13/8 and B/20 13/10 allowWhite to eliminate Blue's presence in the outer board and escape whileBlue is on the roof. B/22 20/15 could be right. It keeps the four primeand the outfield point and dupes White's sixes and threes. But I preferto keep the security of the double anchor. B/20 7/4 only gives White eleven shots, and Blue should have a good chance to go after White's blots next turn whether hit or not.
Achim Mueller: B/20, 7/4.
At first Blue has to decide where to enter from the bar. In my humbleopinion it should be the golden (20) point. From here Blue still hasoutfield control without giving up a valuable anchor. If he puts hischecker to the 22-point, Blue desperately needs a six in the next roll,otherwise he may be forced to break the golden anchor or the midpoint.
So we still have to think about a "3" to play. I'm tempted to use the1998 Istanbul "maybe it works" solution and pick up my dice quickly.Unfortunately here are more than 300 attentive readers. I guess I haveto decide on a legal "3". So let's see: 13/10 gives up a key point andleaves two blots (24 shots). That's too much for me. On the other side7/4 breaks up a fine prime. But it has the advantage of putting somepressure on White, if the blot on the bar point will be missed. B/20,7/4 is my choice.
Snowie: B/22, 20/15.
It is vital to hold onto my main asset, which is the four-prime. I'm notin much danger of being attacked, since White has no board.
Kit Woolsey: B/22, 20/15.
All I have up front is my perfect four-prime. If I bust it up, it will bevery difficult to put it back together. Holding the anchor on the 20point doesn't seem vital, since I have the 22 point in reserve and Whitedoesn't have too many safe pointing numbers. Keeping the midpoint is muchmore important.
Summary: The majority choice was to hold both anchors and bust up the board. I don'tsee why. Is the danger of being attacked really that great?
Play Votes ScoreB/20, 7/4 7 100B/22, 20/15 3 70B/20, 13/10 2 50B/22, 13/8 0 40
Vote Summary
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Chuck Bower 13/7, 13/12 B/22, 6/1* 13/7 23/21, 6/5 11/5, 3/1 B/22, 8/7 20/15, 13/11 B/20, 7/4 Steve Clark 13/7, 13/12 B/22, 6/1* 13/9, 10/8 23/22, 10/8 11/5, 3/1 B/24, 8/5 21/14 B/20, 13/10 Malcolm Davis 13/6 B/22, 6/1* 13/7 23/21, 22/21 8/4*, 6/4, 3/1 B/22, 23/22 20/15, 13/11 B/20, 13/10 Hal Heinrich 13/6 B/22, 6/1* 24/18 23/22, 10/8 11/5, 3/1 B/24, 8/5 21/14 B/20, 7/4Ron Karr 13/7, 13/12 B/22, 6/1* 13/7 23/21, 6/5 11/5, 3/1 B/24, 8/5 21/14 B/22, 20/15George Klitsas 13/7, 13/12 B/20, 13/10 13/7 23/21, 6/5 8/4*, 6/4, 5/3 B/22, 8/7 20/15, 13/11 B/20, 7/4 Laila Leonhardt 13/6 B/20, 13/10 13/7 23/21, 22/21 8/4*, 6/4, 5/3 B/24, 8/5 20/15, 13/11 B/20, 7/4 Rob Maier 13/7, 13/12 B/22, 6/1* 13/9, 6/4 23/22, 10/8 8/4*, 6/4, 5/3 B/24, 8/5 21/16, 13/11 B/20, 7/4David Montgomery 13/7, 8/7 B/22, 6/1* 13/7 23/21, 22/21 11/5, 3/1 B/22, 8/7 20/15, 13/11 B/20, 7/4 Achim Mueller 13/7, 13/12 B/22, 9/4 13/9, 10/8 23/21, 6/5 11/5, 3/1 B/24, 8/5 20/15, 13/11 B/20, 7/4Snowie 13/7, 13/12 B/22, 9/4 24/18 23/21, 22/21 11/5, 3/1 B/22, 23/22 20/15, 13/11 B/22, 20/15 Kit Woolsey 8/2*, 8/7 B/22, 6/1* 13/7 23/21, 6/5 11/5, 3/1 B/24, 8/5 20/15, 13/11 B/22, 20/15
