| 100 110 |                         | White money game Blue |
Problem #8 Play Votes Score7/3, 6/1 5 10013/9, 13/8 3 8024/15 2 7024/20, 6/1 1 607/3, 7/2 0 406/1, 5/1 0 40
Alan Alsop: 7/3, 6/1.
White has to throw well to bring his men home without hiccups. Only slightly behind in the race it would still be wrong for Blue to run and allow White the freedom. Moving off the mid point would also be wrong. The only viable alternative is slotting to make home points. A 4point board is still a strong threat initially.
Chuck Bower: 24/15.
Blue definitely has a nicer board, and will likely have a cash ifhe can hit. OTOH, how likely is that? White has some awkward rolls,but some nice one's, too. Even if White plays awkwardly, how longis Blue willing to wait around? Blue has a lot of race equity whichwill begin to erode soon if he goes all out for contact. After thisroll White leads by 1 pip with the roll (effectively 5 pips), butBlue definitely has better race structure, which nearly evens therace.
24/20, 6/1 maintains some contact but prepares to depart. 24/15 iswielding the whip. For me, it comes down to these two finalists. The interesting thing about 24/20, 6/1 is that it might actuallyburn the 'contact' bridge. White is going to be stepping lightlyunless he gets a killer point-on-head (PoH) or maybe pick-and-pass roll. So at best all Blue ends up doing is forcing White to play awkwardly for a couple of rolls. The downside is that White gets more chances to roll the devastating PoH's. After 24/15, Blue immediately gets the race he's looking for almost 2/3 of the time. After 24/20, 6/1, Blue gets loose less than half the time -- after White fails to PoH and Blue gets either a 7 or an unblocked 9+.
The cube also seems to point at plain running. Hits have very high volatility and often blow way past an efficient cube-turn, whereas races have a tendency to ease into a nice double. That's it for me. Put on the blinders; I can see the finish line ahead!
George Klitsas: 7/3, 6/1.
Moving all the way to the 15 point (24/15) is like accepting one's fate (being behind in the race and vulnerable to some hits, Blue is a clear underdog, winning less than 40% of the games). Moving on to the 20 point (24/20 6/1) is only illusively better. White points on with 3-3, 1-1 and 4-4 and has also some pick and pass rolls (3-2 and 1-2) which are small numbers for racing. This move is actually worse than 24/15. Blue must stay back. The real problem (but of little equity difference, given that Blue stays back) is how to shuffle his other checkers waiting for White to leave a shot or pile his checkers in order to avoid that shot, which leads to severe race wastage. I think it's very close between 7/3 6/1 and 13/9 13/8. I prefer the first, based on general principles (keep the midpoint), although in this position the midpoint seems comparatively of little importance. I vote for 7/3 6/1.
Laila Leonhardt: 13/9, 13/8.
White has timing on both his outside points and is only looking for a safeway to bring checkers home.Blue's advantage here is his strong board and an even race.Blue should focus on his 2 winning chances, Hitting White (this could evenbe a gammon win) or getting into a race with WhiteBut taking 2 checkers down from the midpoint Blue is keeping control ofWhite's outfield and home board making it harder for White to safely get homeand in same time creating 2 more builders for the 3 point and for a smoothdistributed bear in.Running all the way out would be a mistake. It leaves Blue with only onestrategy, Race of not hit and trouble and behind in race if hit
Snowie: 7/3, 6/1.
I'm behind in the race, so I'm not racing. You can't make points withoutstarting them, so let's start them now. I'm probably not going to getany kind of shot next turn, and even if I have to hit with two innerboard blots that isn't so bad at all. My goal is to build a complete boardas quickly as possible, and slotting both inner board points is the way todo this.
Marty Storer: 7/3, 6/1.
Nothing seems to make sense but this double slot orthe half-leap of 24/20 6/1. In many similarpositions, coming up is the best way to gain shotequity. Here, White is stripped enough on his 13 and8 points that Blue apparently gets maximum shot equityby staying back. If Blue comes up, White can playbehind him and even improve his board, increasing thepressure on the Blue straggler; this is less easy todo if Blue is on White's 1 point. Though Blueprobably gets maximum race equity by coming up, thatdoesn't look like enough; he's behind, so it's thematicto avoid a race if reasonably possible. 7/3 6/1 buildsthe board quickly, improving it with any 6, 5, 4, 3 or2 next time. (What's left, double 1? That improves,too.) The double slot is definitely the "When behindin the race, don't race" play, and staying back doesn'tlook too dangerous, or even too wasteful of race equity.I think it has to be right.
Bob Stringer: 24/20, 6/1.
Running is not a completely terrible option, since the race is prettyclose, but the combination of being slightly behind and giving White adirect shot puts me off. 24/20 doesn't look as dangerous as itnormally would, since the points that White made are deep in hisboard. It will be dangerous for White to hit loose on the 20, and ifhe doesn't make that point, it may be a bit award for him -- he mightbe forced to play even more men too deep into his board. If not thisplay, then I'd leave the man on the 24 and start building my boardfurther; 7/3, 6/1 looks best, since it's the fastest.
Casper van der Tak: 7/3, 6/1.
Blue is doing quite well here, since White's position is so awkward. Blue has considerable shot equity, and considerable racing equity. The first question: should Blue stay, escape partially (24/20, and play the 5 elsewhere), or escape all the way? The key is: even if the escape succeeds, Blue will be behind in the race. Meanwhile, if Blue is hit (after 24/15), White will also bring down builders, and Blue loses both shot and racing equity. Escaping partially is better, but also make life easier for White, since White can now dump checkers behind Blue if rolls are awkward. Staying put is clear.
How to stay put? As usual, prepare to complete the board as soon as possible. 7/3 6/1 slots the remaining points, and builds the biggest board the fastest. Normally, that is the technical correct play, and that also seems to be the case here.
Kit Woolsey: 13/9, 13/8.
There doesn't appear to be much future in advancing the back checker.I am a little behind in the race, and the checker is fine where it is --reasonably safe from attack and able to escape in the future butcovering White's inner and outer board effectively. 7/3, 6/1 is thenatural building play, but I am nervous about leaving two inner boardblots right now. I may be getting an indirect shot next turn, and Iwould rather not have those blots if I hit something. I don't needthe midpoint too much, and I will probably be forced to leave it soonanyway, so this looks like a good time to do so.
Chris Yep: 13/9, 13/8.
Should Blue run or stay? Blue is behind by a few pips (White has a 1 pip lead on roll, but will probably end up with slightly more wastage before the bearoff begins). I'm not sure but I believe I would stay. White currently only has a few numbers which point on Blue. At the same time, with White's open 4, 5, and 7 points, Blue will likely have additional opportunities to run in the outfield. Since the race is close, by staying back Blue may cause White to play awkwardly, which may hurt White in the race. Blue has several different waiting moves, but I prefer 13/9 13/8. This is best for the race. The loss of the midpoint is probably not serious. It provides a landing spot if Blue rolls 6-5, but Blue would have had to break the midpoint soon anyway. Also White is unlikely to come down to one checker on the midpoint next turn. 13/9 13/8 gives Blue 4 builders for the 3 point. Other plays are not as good in my opinion. For example 24/20 6/1 doesn't stay back far enough to hinder White's bear-in. 7/3 7/2 is bad for the race and puts an extra builder deep on the 2 point. 7/3 6/1 starts the 3 point, but leaves two inner board blots. If Blue hits a fly shot in the outfield next turn, he'll regret this double slot. Finally 6/1 5/1 not only breaks the board but also is bad for the race. As mentioned above, keeping the midpoint is not that valuable in this position.
Summary: Most of the panel recognized the futility of moving theback checker. The popular choice was to slot the inner board points quickly.This is usually what I like to do, but I'm not so sure here. That indirectshot may be coming very quickly.