| 129 98 |                        | White money game Blue |
Problem #8 Play Votes Score23/22*, 10/7 11 10010/7, 4/3 3 7023/22*, 6/3 0 4023/22*, 5/2 0 4010/9, 5/2 0 40 6/2 0 40
Steve Clark: 23/22*, 10/7.
10-7, 23-22 comes immediately to mind. He will have to bust his primeimmediately almost half the time. If he flunks, I have slowed myself down asbest I could so that he will have plenty of chances to bust on the next rolland possibly for a few more rolls. Furthermore I will be at the edge of theprime so that whenever he breaks, I will be positioned to take advantage.Other plays which hit are weaker because the do not kill my 6's next roll.
If we do not hit, white has more rolls which break his prime immediately, butwe will not be so well positioned to take advantage. We will not be up to theedge of his prime. In general it is best to get as many of our opponent'scheckers back as possible. It becomes much harder for him to keep a primetogether when he is running out of checkers. Each position must be examinedon its merits but I believe the general rule applies here.
If I were to avoid hitting, I would still kill the 6's with 10-7 rather thantrying to extend the prime forward. But that is not directly relevant to thisproblem because I am going to play 10-7, 23-22.
Malcolm Davis: 23/22*, 10/7.
Have to hit and hope that opponent comes in. Seems to likely to break withnon-hitting play.
Ray Fogerlund: 10/7, 4/3.
Oh, Ms. White, would you like some nice new rope?All the better to hang yourself, my pretty! This play kills my sixes, andforces her to play hers. What's more, she has to go first. I have theadvantage in timing, but it might go south if I hit and she fails to enter.This is a delicate business, so it always seems better to have two plans.First off, I would like her to play and ruin her position. Secondly I wouldlike to slow myself down some and/or have maximum potential to make a 6prime of my own and force her to Krakatoa, East of Java...
Bruce Haight: 23/22*, 10/7.
This is a great problem. We all know the first priority in positions like this is to get to the front of Whites prime but is it worth putting White on the bar to do it? Since White is a favorite to come back in quickly I think it is worth it, and I like killing sixes by moving 10/7.
Hal Heinrich: 23/22*, 10/7
Play 10/7 kills sixes, so that much is clear. Hitting gives White a lotof bad entries, and leaves Blue at the edge of the prime when itbreaks. Not hitting leaves White some time to prevent Blue from leapingwith a single six. It's hard to quantify mathematically, but it feelslike hitting is right by a big margin.
Ron Karr: 23/22* 10/7.
Hitting when White has a 6-prime? The problem is, ifI let him play, all his 6s maintain the 6-prime, while other numbersallow him to break from the rear and keep the good 5-prime, so his onlybad numbers are large doubles. Next roll he might have some problems,but even then I still have to escape before crunching.
If I hit, he has a bunch of numbers to enter and break the prime,giving me immediate escaping chances. And 10/7 is mandatory to kill6s. Then I'll have good chances to keep the bar point for a while,while waiting for him to enter and break.
George Klitsas: 10/7, 4/3.
A tough problem. At least one can reject the slotting plays. From the plays that start with hitting on the twenty-two point, 23/22* 10/7 is better (for it saves a six) than 23/22* 6/3 and better than the slotting play 23/22* 5/2, since Blue wants White to enter with something like a 2-4, which forces a break and in that case, Blue definitely does not want to have another man sent back. From the non-hitting plays that rely on giving White all the timing he needs to break, 10/7 4/3 looks best. Here the slotting plays have more merit. One can visualize favorable sequences for Blue (for example Blue plays 10/9 5/2, White rolls a 4-2 played 9/3, Blue rolls a 6-2 closing the two-point and White can't spread a checker (24/23) if he happens to roll now an ace. But this is more of a parlay than a mere favorable sequence and there are many frequent sequences unfavorable for Blue (Blue plays again 10/9 5/2 and White rolls a 3-1 for example) that make the slotting play clearly worse in the long run. The slottingplaysrejected, it's an issue between 23/22* 10/7 and 10/7 4/3. The former is based on immediate entering rolls that break White's prime , the latter on a guess (educated hope?) that White will lose the timing battle more often than not. 23/22* 10/7 should be able to win more gammons, because of the third White checker sent back, but also lose more plain games, since it is quite common a scenario for Blue to crunch and face optimal redoubles. I am not at all sure what's the best play here (actually, I played 72 games each way and I can't say I ended up much the wiser) but since I must vote, I'll go for the quiet variation, 10/7 4/3.
Laila Leonhardt: 10/7, 4/3.
This is all about timing. Blue will get in a lot of trouble if he hits Whiteand White stays on the bar.Better play is to kill the 6's by playing to the bar point, and wait forWhite to break his prime.
Rob Maier: 23/22*, 10/7.
I haven't been able to make up my mind whether hitting or not hitting wins moregames, but I'm certain that hitting wins quite a lot more gammons, and that is probably enough to swing the decision in that direction.
David Montgomery: 23/22*, 10/7.
Not hitting looks like a blunder. If left alone White can oftenadvance the prime by covering her 3 point, this roll or later on.The way to make White crack is to hit so that White has no spare checkers. After hitting, 10/7 looks clear. This kills sixes and improves most of Blue's fives.
Snowie: 23/22*, 10/7.
Every checker I send back increases my gammon chances considerably. Whitewould have to stay out a long time to win the priming battle. Otherapproaches allow him to roll his prime forward.
Kit Woolsey: 23/22*, 10,7.
If I leave White's blot alone, White has 12 extra pips to play with up frontand I will have to keep moving. By hitting, I force White to break as soonas he enters if he doesn't roll 2-6 from the bar. Getting the outfield checkeronto the bar point is big. Not only does this freeze my sixes, but it givesme a badly needed five to play. Keeping my bar point is vital.
Chris Yep: 23/22*, 10/7.
Hitting looks clear to me. In a prime vs. prime game there are two important factors to consider: (1) the number of spare pips each side has before cracking and (2) the number of men each side has behind the opponent's prime. 23/22* moves to the edge of White's prime and sends a third man back. Although White has a 6-prime, it will almost always crack as soon as White enters from the bar (White is unlikely to stay on the bar for more than a turn or two). Not hitting would leave Blue with 13 spare pips to play with, assuming that he can comfortably make his 2 point. Although Blue's 6s are killed after 10/7 4/3, his position will become awkward if he can't quickly make the 2 point. White, on the other hand has at least 18 spare pips before his prime starts cracking (if necessary and if he gets the right dice he can often point on White to buy a little more time).
If Blue hits he sends a 3rd man significantly increasing his gammon chances. With the 3 I believe Blue should play 10/7 in order to kill his 6s. Slotting the 2 point with 5/2 is not necessary. Although it might be better when White fails to hit back on Blue's 2 point, Blue loses too much when hit. In addition it doesn't kill Blue's 6s.
Summary: Everybody on the panel got the concept of killing sixes bymoving to the bar point, a key concept in a priming battle. The largemajority of the panel believes that the gain from the added space makeshitting correct.