return to indexE-mail me at kwoolsey@netcom.com
Really enjoying the magazine - A couple of questions:
1. With the Monthly Quiz is it possible to see what move you voted for?
2. Although the whole idea of GammOnLine is to be interactive andflexible with a number of the articles subscribers are going to need toprint them off to study them e.g. your article on the five point match.Would you consider seeing if subscribers would like to receive printedcopies of the articles at an appropriate extra cost? If you don't likethis idea 'in principle' I guess I will have to upgrade my printer!
Neil Webb
There is now a button in the solutions to the quiz which permits you tosee which moves you voted for.
The images which make up the backgammon positions are now available fordownloading. With these, you can download an article and read it offline,positions and all. Check out the what's new section for the link to thisdownloading.
Kit Woolsey
The novel scoring system for the monthly Quiz leads to interesting results for the expert panel. It would be fun to see the experts' results appear along with those of the readers. People not receiving top scores would know that they're in good company!
Ron Dumont
Why not. No reason for the panel of experts not to be as embarrassed aseverybody else. Their scores will be included in this month's issue.
Kit Woolsey
I read your book "How to play a tournament" (I hope I did title right:-)) with great interest. Being mathematician myself I was fascinatedwith all math involved and enjoyed following (and verifying :-) )your calculations.
However there is one question in my mind that I did not find answer toin your excellent book. The question is when to double when I am in adoubling window? Should I be in a middle of a doubling window, or shouldI double immediately upon entering window. Or my be I should double onlyif I have a real chance to loose my market on the next roll?
For instance, if I rolled 6-1 on my first roll and anchored my bar pointand my opponent rolled something uneventful roll like 6-3 then I willend up with something like 54% of winning the match. Is it a good timeto double? Intuitively I feel it is still too early, however, I cannotsay why and probabilities are telling me that doubling is justified.
So what would you say?
Vladimir Kuznetsov
The answer is that there is no easy answer. You can't just say it is rightto double with X percent winning chances at a particular match score.Doubling decisions are based on volatility as well as equity, and that isvery difficult to define.
Of course it is safe to say that doubling is never correct unless there issome chance of losing your market on the next exchange. Also, you shouldtend to double nearer the bottom end of the doubling window when you arebehind in a match which is approaching the end, while if you are aheadin the match you tend to wait until you are near the top of the doublingwindow. This makes intuitive sense. The leader doesn't want to riskeverything, while the trailer is willing to shoot it out. For example,suppose you start with 3-1 and your opponent responds with 6-2. Ifyou are behind 4 away, 2 away, it is quite correct to double here. At aneven match score, doubling would be premature.
Kit Woolsey
I've been sitting home recuperating from minor knee surgery, so I havenothing better to do than harass people with long questions aboutbackgammon. :-)
The following is something I just posted to rec.games.backgammon,under the thread "Difficult Crawford checker play." My basic question goes to the following sort of issue: if you're not sure of the correct strategy in particular position, and if, in subsequent positions, the same kind of decision has to be made over and over again, how can you ever have any confidence in a rollout? In otherwords, if you're not sure how to evaluate the position, then how do you know you're making the right decisions during the rollout?
Bob Stringer
You don't. This is one of the main reasons why a bot rollout might notbe trustworthy. If the bot is fundamentally misplaying the position in someway, the results of the rollout won't be accurate. It is up to the userto determine if he thinks the bot is playing the position adequately.
As humans, we are capable of changing our programming. We do not have tocontinue to make the same mistake over and over, although unfortunatelythis happens all too often. Quite frequently I have started to roll outa position by hand, and after 10 or 20 games I had to start over because Irealized that I was misplaying the position. Hopefully this improves therollout results, as well as teaching me something about backgammon.
Kit Woolsey